MTS — stock vs MIN/MAX MTS 库存对照 MIN/MAX
How to read the charts: columns compare weekly demand and output; the line is week-end stock against the MIN–MAX corridor. Solid band = defined in the MPS; dashed band = last value extended. 图表读法：柱状图对比周需求与周产出；折线为周末库存对照 MIN–MAX 区间。实线段 = MPS 已定义；虚线段 = 末值延伸。
Each item shows two plans. A: strict MIN/MAX execution (halt when above MAX, fill to MAX at best, whole-day scheduling, 6-day peak weeks — 500L 400/day, M/S 1,100/day — CNY idle): the red GAP marks demand the plan cannot serve. B: current pre-build rhythm — our proposal. The strip below each chart shows production days per week. 每款两个方案。A：严格按 MIN/MAX 执行（超 MAX 停产、最多备到 MAX、整天排产、旺季 6 天——500L 400 套/天、M/S 1,100 套/天——春节放空）：红色 GAP 即计划无法满足的需求。B：当前节奏备库存（我方提案）。图下条带为每周生产天数。
Daily rates: 500L 300/day standard, 400/day at full stretch when closing the gap; the shared M/S line 800/day off-season, 1,100/day at the peak. Bottom line: strict execution (PLAN A) could leave up to ~66,000 pcs of demand unserved by 27W20 — 12,480 on 500L (deepest 27W07) + 53,544 on the shared M/S line (deepest 27W14, after the 27W13 spike). 日产能：500L 常规 300 套/天、追缺口时拉满 400 套/天；M/S 共线淡季 800 套/天、旺季 1,100 套/天。合计：严格执行到 27W20 可能形成约 66,000 件无法满足的需求（500L 最深 27W07，M/S 共线最深 27W14——27W13 尖峰之后）。
Full-year demand check — MTS MTS 全年需求合理性对照（2026 累计 vs 2025 实际）
Is the 2026 plan conservative or aggressive? Each bar is the cumulative 26W01–26W52 demand, split into firm demand and forecast; the red tick marks the 2025 full-year actual. 每条为 26W01–26W52 全年累计需求，分实单与预测两部分；红色刻度线为 2025 全年实际——高于红线即计划高于去年。
MTO — we build ahead where demand beats capacity MTO：需求超产能处，我们提前备产
For MTO items, there is no MIN/MAX stock target. Inventory is built only to bridge demand peaks that exceed weekly capacity. When the stock line approaches zero, the pre-build window before that point becomes our production lock window. MTO 不设 MIN/MAX 库存目标，库存只用于覆盖周需求超过产能的尖峰。当库存线接近 0 时，其前置备产窗口就是我们的排产锁定窗口。
The dates under each chart show when we must lock each build. With only 2 frozen weeks today, demand changes can arrive inside our real production response time. At that point, even if we accept the forecast risk, we may not be able to adjust line capacity, materials, labor, and scheduling fast enough to serve demand. This is why ask 04 is a 4-week frozen window. 各图下的周次是我们必须锁定排产的时点。目前只冻结 2 周需求，很多变化会落在我们的实际生产反应周期之内。到了这个时间点，即使我们愿意承担预测风险，也未必能及时调整产线、物料、人力和排程来满足需求。因此诉求 04 是将冻结期延长到 4 周。
Our proposal & how you can help 我们的提案，与请您协助之处
Pre-building per PLAN B — the 6-day peak from 26W41/26W44, at our cost and inventory risk — is our proposal, not a decision already taken: it needs your endorsement and the support below to work. What helps us most is visibility early enough to align capacity. 按 PLAN B 提前备货（26W41/26W44 起满产，成本与库存风险由我方承担）是我们的提案，而非已经拍板的决策——需要您的认可和下列协助才能落地。最能帮到我们的，是足够提前、能让我们安排产能的可见性。
Restore the pre-W23 MIN/MAX levels 恢复 W23 前的 MIN/MAX
The new W23–W39 band (MAX 4,214 / 5,915 / 8,767) sits below today's stock and, strictly executed, forces production halts of 6–8 weeks (PLAN A) — a factory cannot sustain minimum operation that way. The pre-W23 levels (12,396 / 23,855 / 11,749) kept us workable: please restore them.
新的 W23–W39 区间（MAX 4,214/5,915/8,767）低于当前库存，严格执行须停产 6–8 周（见 PLAN A）——工厂无法维持最低运营。W23 前的水平（12,396/23,855/11,749）是可运转的，希望恢复。
Allow MAX to rise from W44 自 W44 起允许提升 MAX
The 27W01–27W20 peak needs year-end pre-builds of ≈21,000 (500L) / 52,000 (500M) / 16,500 (500S). We carry the build cost and inventory risk — PLAN A shows the alternative could leave up to ~66,000 pcs unserved by 27W20.
27W01–27W20 高峰需要年末备至约 21,000 / 52,000 / 16,500。建库存的成本与库存风险由我们承担——PLAN A 显示，到 27W20 可能形成约 66,000 件无法满足的需求。
Goal colour change — please confirm timing soon 球门换色时间请尽快确认
If the change lands in the off-season — i.e. now — the supply-chain impact is minimal: stocks are at their yearly low and the 2027 pre-build has not started. Once we start building (26W41/26W44), every week of delay puts more old-colour stock at risk.
若换色落在淡季（也就是最近），对供应链影响最小：目前库存处于全年低位、2027 备货尚未开始。一旦 26W41/26W44 开始建库存，每推迟确认一周，旧色库存的风险就大一分。
Freeze 4 weeks of demand instead of 2 需求冻结期 2 周 → 4 周
Demand spikes arrive with little warning, while only 2 weeks are frozen today. This is shorter than the time we need to adjust capacity, materials, labor, and scheduling. When changes come this late, the plan may not react in time, even if we accept the forecast risk. A 4-week frozen window lets us schedule capacity against committed demand and avoid avoidable shortages.
目前需求变化留给我们的反应时间太短，而冻结期只有 2 周，短于我们调整产能、物料、人力和排程所需的时间。需求变化如果来得太晚，即使我们愿意承担预测风险，计划也未必能及时反应。将冻结期延长到 4 周，可以让我们基于已确认需求安排产能，避免本可避免的缺货。
Earlier & longer forecast where it matters 预测：新款更早、整体更可靠
ESS 100 and TRA 500 are 2026 launches with no history to simulate — beyond your forecast there is no visible demand. For all MTO peaks above, earlier and more reliable forecast gives us enough time to align capacity before the lock window.
ESS 100 与 TRA 500 为新款、无历史可模拟，预测结束后就没有可见需求；上文所有 MTO 尖峰，越早、越可靠的预测，越能让我们在锁定排产前完成产能协调。